Odds Of Making Poker Hands
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Here are some important probabilities in Omaha that returns in different situations. Knowledge about probabilities will help you to better evaluate situations in poker. You will , for example, know when you should call and when you shouldn't, and, vice versa, know when to fold and when the odds are in your favor.
To calculate your poker equity - or how often you should win a hand, you can use a simple formula. Count how many outs you have. For example, if you're drawing to a flush, you have 13 suited cards, two in your hand, two on the board - leaves 9 outs. The chance of you hitting on the turn is 9.4 (+4) = 40%. Other poker odds charts. For more useful odds charts that you can use for when you are working out whether or not to call when on a drawing hand, use the following tables: Ratio odds chart. Percentage odds chart. Both of these tables give the odds for completing your draw depending on how many outs you have. This post works with 5-card Poker hands drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. The discussion is mostly mathematical, using the Poker hands to illustrate counting techniques and calculation of probabilities Working with poker hands is an excellent way to illustrate the counting techniques covered previously in this blog - multiplication principle, permutation. Here are the most important odds for making poker Straight Texas Holdem hands: The odds of flopping a Straight is 1,04% when you have any connected starting hand. You have less chance of 0.85% to hit a Straight on the Flop with one gapper (like AQ, 53, etc.).
Drawing hands probabilities | Odds | Percent |
---|---|---|
Double wraparound straight draw (e.g. hand: 9-8-5-4, flop: 7-6-x) | 0.48-1 | 68% |
Wraparound straight draw (e.g. hand: 8-5-4-x, flop: 7-6-x) | 0.67-1 | 60% |
Straight flush draw | 0.84-1 | 54% |
Hitting a full house with three pairs | 3-1 | 24% |
Hitting a full house with two pairs | 5.1-1 | 16.5% |
Hitting quads with a set | 21.5-1 | 4.5% |
Starting hands
There are many starting hands in Omaha (16.432 if not all suit combinations are counted), which makes it difficult to get an overview. Table 2 will hopefully increase that overview a bit.
Situation | Percent |
---|---|
A-A-K-K double suited to win against average hand | 73% |
A-A-K-K rainbow to win against average hand | 68% |
A-A-7-7 double suited to win against average hand | 72% |
A-A-7-7 rainbow to win against average hand | 67% |
A-A-J-T double suited to win against average hand | 76% |
A-A-J-T rainbow to win against average hand | 71% |
J-T-9-8 double suited to win against average hand | 56% |
J-T-9-8 rainbow to win against average hand | 49% |
Comments
Exemple of a double suited hand: Q♥ A♥ 2♦ K♦
Exemple of a rainbow hand: Q♥ A♣ 2♠ K♦
The best Omaha hands are less bigger favorites against an average hand compared to Texas Hold'em.
In Texas Hold'em, common knowledge is that A-A is very big favorite against all other hands. In Omaha, A-A as a part of a hand is far from that strong. In general, an A-A-x-x hand versus a random four-card hand is a 70-30 favorite in average (if all the starting hands that are normally folded are excluded, the A-A-x-x hands will be even less favorites).
Made hands versus draws
A typical feature in an Omaha Hi game is a set against a hand with several drawing possibilities. The made hand will not be a very big favorite (sometimes it is an underdog), so the recommended strategy is to play fast and bet/raise the pot in these situations.
Situation | Percent |
---|---|
Top set against flush draw | 70%-30% |
Middle set against flush draw | 70%-30% |
Top set against flush draw + two pairs | 68%-32% |
Set against wraparound straight draw | 52%-48% |
Set against double wraparound straight draw | 53%-47% |
Comments
Factors that can affect the odds are for example blocking cards.
Flush draws versus straight draws
Odds Of Making Poker Hands Game
In Omaha, hands with flush draws are often more likely to win than straight draws.
Situation | Percent |
---|---|
Flush draw against wraparound | 60%-40% |
Flush draw against double wraparound | 55%-45% |
Comments
Since that many cards are in action, there are often combined possibilities, which makes it hard to give general percentages. A hand with a flush draw has mostly something else, like a pair or a straight draw as well.
Related article:Omaha strategy
Understanding Poker Hands Odds
The Basics
Standard poker games like Texas Holdem typically use a single deck of 52 cards. Each card comes in four different suits. With this information, it would be possible to know exactly what your odds of getting specific cards or hands are. For instance, your probability of getting dealt any single card is 1/52. Your chances of getting an 8 (regardless of suit), on the other hand, is 4/52. Of course, the odds of getting different combinations of different cards would require more complex mathematical formulas, but the numbers can definitely be computed for.
Keep in mind, however, that knowing these numbers will not automatically make you an awesome poker player or guarantee that you’ll win every game. After all, aside from knowledge, experience and skill, luck also largely affects your chances for victory. At the very least, though, a good understanding of how probability works in poker should help you gauge where you stand and make better decisions while playing.
Please note the following card references:
(h) Hearts (d) Diamonds (c) Clubs (s) Spades
The Relationship Between Odds and Future Cards
In the example above, we showed how your odds of getting any one card are 1/52. But what if you already had one card in hand? Well, your chances of getting any other single card of a different value become 1/51 because there are only 51 cards left in the deck. Needless to say, your odds of getting any third card of yet another value are 1/50.
Same valued future cards are a completely different story, however, because aside from just removing one more card from the deck, getting a second, third or fourth card of the same value also keeps removing cards from the four total available in the deck. For example, if your odds of getting a 10, based on the second example in the first section, are 4/52, then your chances of getting a second 10 are 3/51. Your odds of being dealt a third and fourth 10 are 2/50 and 1/49 respectively.
The Science Behind Odds of a Hand
Your chances of getting any two cards of different values but specific suits as in 10s 4c (regardless of the order in which they are dealt), on the other hand, are 1/1,326. Here’s the math behind it:
P = 1/52 x 1/51 (because you’re getting one card and then one more future card)
P = 1/2,652
But since the two cards can be dealt in two ways (i.e., A then B or B then A), then we need to multiply the result above by 2:
P = 1/2,652 x 2
P = 1/1,326
For pairs, however, we’ll need to tweak the math a little bit:
P = 4/52 x 3/51
P = 1/221
Applications
Now that you know the basics of probability computations and how future cards affect them, you can easily figure out the probability of getting any number of poker hands. Let’s take a look at some examples:
To know your odds of getting a two pair, the computation is as follows:
P = 1/221 + 1/221 (because the probability of getting a single pair is 1/221 and we need two)
P = 2/221 or 1/110
For a set of cards of random values and suits as in A 10, on the other hand:
Odds Of Making Poker Hands
P = 4/52 x 4/51(4 because each card comes in for suits and we need both to complete the set)
Odds Of Making Poker Hands Without
P = 4/663 (or 2/13 if the order in which the cards are dealt in does not matter)
Some Tools You Can Use
Now, while you could do all these computations on paper (or in your head if you’re really good with numbers), there are some online tools that you can use to make things so much easier.
First up: a fraction calculator. It also comes with some other useful extras that allow you to simplify mixed fractions, convert decimal numbers into fractions and convert fractions into decimal numbers. It should make solving probability equations a breeze.
There’s also a tool you can use to reduce the resulting fractions into their lowest forms, which you can check out here.
Or if you don’t want to do the computations yourself, then you can just check out the numbers here. After all, you’re here because you’re looking for ways to improve your game and not to become a math whiz, right?
Poker Odds Of Making Hands
Now, while we’re on the subject, there’s really no better way to get better at poker than by actually playing it. So, why not sign up for a www.safeclub.com account today so you can start enjoying some real money poker action online? We’ll even throw in more of these poker tips in the package so you can keep getting better while you play!